Description
Creating a Eurasian Union offers a detailed analysis of the economies of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and the proposed Eurasian Union. The authors employ econometric analysis of business cycles and cointegration analysis to prove the fragility of the union’s potential economic success. By providing a brief description of the economic integration of the former Soviet republics, this pioneering work analyses the on-going trial and error processes of market integration led by Russia. Vymyatnina and Antonova’s distinctive argument is the first consistent analysis of the emerging Eurasian Union. They incorporate both a non-technical summary of the integration process and previous research and analytical comments, as well as a thorough empirical analysis of the real data on the economic development of the participating countries, to caution that the speed of integration might undermine the feasibility of the Eurasian Union. Yulia Vymyatnina and Daria Antonova Introduction 1. Post-Soviet Integration: Fictive and Derivative 2. Business Cycles Synchronization of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Conclusions and Policy Recommendations Appendix 1. Additional Information on the Customs Union Trade (2011-2012 Appendix 2. Data Sources Appendix 3. Integration, Fractional Integration, Cointegration of Real De-Trended GDP Appendix 4. More Results of Business Cycles and Correlations Analysis (Graphic Representation) Appendix 5. Business Cycles Correlation: GDP, GDP Decomposition and Growth Rates Appendix 6. VAR, Variance Decomposition and Impulse-Response Analysis of Real GDP and GDP Decomposition
